gbp/usd analysis for 20 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

GBP: GBP Supported for Now. Neutral.
GBP has been an outperformer over the past week, driven by UK rate expectations. Carney’s comments concerning the timing of the first rate hike helped GBP to rally, and we expect to see continued strength in the near term. However, the bigger shift has been from Miles, who has been the long-time dove. This could be a reflection of the center ground at the MPC starting to shift towards the hawkish camp. The UK economic performance remains strong, and this should help to support GBP.
USD: Focus Returns to Fed. Bullish.
With risks from Greece and China diminishing, we believe that the market will once more focus on Fed rate hikes. In Yellen’s latest comments, she reiterated that the central bank remains data-dependent and flexible. With the market still pricing the first hike in six months, we see scope for this to be brought forward if US data come in on the strong side, boosting USD. We expect USD to continue to outperform.
UK retail sales – Even if next week’s data were to surprise higher, we would see limited room for further rising central bank rate expectations. As such, we expect the GBP to remain capped.
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 14 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

GBP/USD has been caught up in the Greek debacle, acting as a safe haven trade on positive headlines to running downside plays on uncertainties such as a Grexit as the dollar takes up the advantage on interest rate prospects as markets begin to look beyond the noise of Greece. We now await to see whether Greece's prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, can pass the six reforms through the Greek parliament by Wednesday which are said to include tax hikes, spending cuts, and pension reforms. Tsipras will have a challenge on his hands with the Syriza-led bloc, who rebelled this weekend when he sought their endorsement for such reforms.

Meanwhile, IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 7 July 2015 saw GBP net shorts rose to 22,973 fully reversing the sharp fall to 12,759 previously. Analysts at Rabobank explained, "We maintain relatively positive view on the GBP against the EUR and expect the cable to soften towards the end of the year as the Fed is likely to raise interest rates ahead of the BoE."
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 13 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

GBP: GBP Driven By Rates Expectations. so still Neutral.
We believe that GBP will strengthen to its peak in the coming months with short-term performance driven by rate expectations in anticipation of the first vote for a rate hike in August. The Budget announced this week supports this view pointing to potential upside risks to inflation in the near term so we will be watching the CPI. However, front loaded fiscal tightening indicates growth headwinds and GBP strength coming under pressure in the medium term.
USD: Still considered as Safe Haven. so trend is Bullish.
In an environment of fading risk appetite and high uncertainty due to China and Greece, we believe USD will be a relative outperformer. Oil prices are also on a downward trend, which could boost USD as well. The market has pushed back the timing of the first Fed hike significantly, creating room for upside moves if US data does surprise on the strong side. We will watch the upcoming retail sales and CPI prints.
We are constructive on USD because it continues to exhibit a positive correlation with risk-correlated assets, but it also benefits from its unparalleled liquidity during bouts of risk-off. We also think that a potential deal on Greece over the weekend will help investors re-focus on the Fed policy outlook. 
inflation in Sweden and the UK will attract attention. When it comes to the GBP we see limited room for further rising rate expectations even if price developments stabilise. so, we go short cable. 
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 10 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

The pair kept the composure after the BoE once again left its monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, with the refi rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase facility at £375 billion, broadly in line with market expectations.The British pound keeps range below 1.54 handle versus the US dollar in the mid-European trades, with GBP/USD striving for 1.5400. The cable consolidates to the upside despite broad based US dollar strength, in an attempt to recuperate from the sell-off seen earlier this week, while markets now await fresh cues from the upcoming Bank of England’s (BOE) rate decision.Markets now focus on the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate and QE announcement later today. It is very likely the central bank will leave its monetary policy stance unchanged in July – the base rate will stay at the record low of 0.5% and the QE volume at £375 billion. Data on UK industrial and manufacturing output, often secondary to that on the services sector in an economy which relies heavily on financial and other services for growth, were mixed, giving markets little new to play on in the debate on when the Bank of England could raise interest rates.
Another signal on the UK economy, and whether Britain’s central bank might move this year or early next year, may come from the latest update from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, an independent think-tank, on its forecasts for gross domestic product due later on Tuesday.
Currency investors are awaiting a budget statement from the British finance minister George Osborne on Wednesday, who is widely expected to cut welfare spending by 12 billion pounds. Traders said any tightening could push back expectations of British interest rate hikes and weigh on the pound.
fundamental long term is bearish
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  
 

gbp/usd analysis for 09 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

 the release of UK manufacturing data which showed a decline of 0.6% from April to May, which was also the second consecutive decline we’ve seen month-on-month losses.
What this has done now is to make the UK more reliant on its services sector which then becomes the concern of the BoE and UK Government. On the other hand, industrial figures came in better than expected – mostly due to oil and gas performances. We also saw the NIESR growth estimate print at 0.7% for the 3 months leading up to June which was higher than the 0.4% anticipated.
Overall, GBP dropped against its two major counterparts yesterday and seems to be doing the same this morning – this is mainly due to weak manufacturing data, the problems in/with Greece and the dollar being an apparent safe haven. Today is somewhat notable for UK announcements as the government releases the first Tory-only budget in almost 20 years.
On the mainland, Greece continued to cause a massive headache for all euro-concerned but ultimately ended up against the pound when markets closed. The embattled country has yet to offer up any real solutions to its creditors which seems to make the likelihood of a Grexit all the more likely. Contagion is the big worry if this does occur – the worry the other Eurozone countries that are facing austerity will simply turn around and say they’ve had enough too and reject bailout terms and conditions. This has far reaching consequences for the possible future of the single currency.
In the US, the safe haven appeal of the US Dollar has seen it hit multi-week high.
so fundamental long term is bearish
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 08 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

the pair hit a fresh session low of 1.5504 as the sudden fall in the EUR/USD pair dragged the cable lower from the post UK industrial production data.The USD dollar has found love across the board after the EUR/USD pair broke below the psychological 1.10 handle. The losses in the common currency also weighed over the British Pound. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the Chinese markets also pushed commodity currencies – AUD, NZD, CAD lower across the board.
Paul Robson of RBS, offers the outlook for GBP/USD and the currencies behaviour to data and events, and further maintain a short position in the pair.

“Last week brought mixed news on activity but more bad news on the UK’s current account deficit. Over the past year, a large and widening deficit has been financed by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and net portfolio inflows. That funding could dry up ahead of the UK in/out EU Referendum, in our view.”

“We believe that GBP has already started to trade in much the same way as a currency dragged down by a significant current account deficit. Only on days when data inform on the UK interest rate debate does the currency appear to outperform, driven by relative short-term capital flows. On slower news days, the currency appears to struggle, most likely reflecting adverse long-term capital flows.”

“An underwhelming Euro area recovery, Greece exit risks and subdued global growth suggest the good days may become less common in H2:15.”

“Last week’s soft manufacturing PMI is a warning, in our view. We believe that a more robust service sector is increasingly the only thing standing in the way of GBP weakness. Adding to this is the risk that this week’s UK Budget sees a front-loading of fiscal tightening. Our preferred way of positioning for possible GBP under-performance is to short the currency against a globally stronger USD.”

so fundamental long term is change to bearish
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bearish.we will waiting for technical sell and ignore buying signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 07 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

the pair GBP/USD has weakened from Greek risks and weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI; however, we still see strength in the more important services sector. In particular wages here appear to be picking up which has supported rate expectations in the UK and therefore GBP. We believe there is potential for GBP/USD to reach 1.60 but prefer buying on the crosses, in particular against the NOK where an accommodative central bank highlights the divergences between the two currencies.
The British economy grew faster than previously thought in the first quarter of the year, as household's disposable income increased at the fastest annual rate since 2011. The economy expanded 0.4% in the first three months, according to the Office for National Statistics, up from an initial estimate of 0.3%. Most economists and the Bank of England expect growth to accelerate later this year. The ONS also revised up an annual growth to 2.9% from 2.5%. For 2014 as a whole, the UK economy grew 3.0%, the fastest pace since 2006.
so fundamental long term is bullish
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bullish.we will waiting for technical buy and ignore selling signal for gbp/usd  

gbp/usd analysis for 06 july 2015 (daily forex analysis)

this is the latest weekly positions updates on Societe Generale's FX Quant Fund which runs systematic currency strategies by SocGen's quant analysts. The SG FX Enhanced Risk Premia has flattened the short Yen and long Aussie positions during the week. The biggest longs are the USD and the GBP. The most sizeable shorts are the NZD and the CAD. The short position in NZD/USD and the long position in USD/CAD are the USD crosses with the highest combined momentum and IR-driven FX signals. The standard SG Sentiment indicator has slipped into the risk-averse area on the back of the renewed tensions about the Greek sovereign problems. Based on the adaptive (tailored) version of the sentiment indicators and the relevant time-series signals, we have also closed the G10 carry basket and currently we do not have exposure to FX carry in any of the regions. The risk of the aggregate strategy remains confined and stands just at 7% annualised volatility.
Bank of England's MPC rhetoric is getting more hawkish, RBS comments.
"Following the upside surprise on April wage data (2.7% 3m/YoY, 0.6pp above consensus), several MPC members have followed through with relatively hawkish commentary," RBS comments.
RBS views. "In FX, our Europe Desk Strategist Paul Robson acknowledges that Sterling will benefit from the hawkish rhetoric. However, he believes the medium outlook is still bearish for GBP given ‘Brexit’ risks and the potential impact of fiscal austerity on the growth outlook," RBS projects.

so fundamental long term is bullish
so the recomendation for gbp/usd is bullish.we will waiting for technical buy and ignore selling signal for gbp/usd